The polling in the Alabama Senate race has been very steady until now, but a new entry suggests anything might happen when Alabama Republicans finally vote today.

Donald Trump endorsed incumbent and establishment favorite Luther Strange to be the permanent replacement for Jeff Sessions. However conservatives have been backing Mo Brooks, while people we’d think of as Trump supporters have been backing Roy Moore.

Moore had won every poll since the Trump endorsement of Strange, until Emerson‘s poll came out yesterday. Emerson gives Strange a three point lead.

All the polls suggest there will be a runoff between Moore and Strange, however historically the candidate who wins the first round tends to win the runoff. So it actually matters who comes in first place today, because that man instantly becomes the front runner in the runoff election between the top two.

Of course, if anyone gets over 50% today, then no runoff is needed, but that’s very unlikely in a hotly contested three-cornered race.