Democrats are battling it out in New Hampshire.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is leading as expected, New Hampshire being the neighboring state to Sanders’ state of Vermont.
But the surprise is how the rest of the field is shaping up.
One would have thought that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), another neighbor, from Massachusetts, would have been in the running for the second spot.
But instead it’s looks like a battle between Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sanders, with the surprise, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), charging up on the outside, passing both Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden who may wind up fifth. Both Warren and Biden appear to have collapsed and may not break 10%.
It’s looking like only the first three candidates may leave the state with any of its 24 delegates — which require crossing a 15% threshold. Which means Warren and Biden would be out of luck if they can’t break that threshold.
A few early observations:
–Klobucharge is real
–Warren and Biden, yikes.
–Sanders, like in Iowa, is doing quite a bit worse in older rural areas than '08. Wasn't really sure whether that was likely in NH for a few reasons, but here it is
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 12, 2020
It’s happening pic.twitter.com/dbR78kMhZb
— Barstool News Network (@BarstoolNewsN) February 12, 2020
Early Klobuchar returns give me the distinct feeling we’re going to be combing through returns late into the night.
— Daniel Foster (@DanFosterType) February 12, 2020
like 5 straight women callers into @NHPR have said they switched from Warren to Amy K because Klobuchar is "feisty" & "tough" and she can take on Trump — but they're worried Warren can't win. Recency bias is a helluva drug in a crowded field.
— Peter Hamby (@PeterHamby) February 12, 2020
While we're all focused on the collapse of Joe Biden, we should spare a moment to laugh hysterically at the complete implosion of Elizabeth Warren.
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) February 12, 2020
Klobuchar appears to have gotten a boost after the last debate and both she and Buttigieg appear to be attracting people who are looking for a more moderate choice than Sanders or Warren, although it’s a real question of whether Buttigieg is “more moderate.”
Klobuchar was the only person who expressed a concern about having a socialist at the top of the ticket, although the only reasons she enunciated were for reasons of electability. She painted herself as someone who could attract more moderates and independents than Sanders could.
But as a former prosecutor, she isn’t going to appeal to a lot on the left so the question is whether she can have sustained momentum. And it might raise the question of a three way battle for the lead a little further down the road.
Meanwhile, the choices are narrowing as Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet dropped out tonight.