Pelosi Election

Perhaps the only thing in Congress more bizarre that what goes on in [mc_name name=’Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000146′ ]’s bathroom (here | here) is Nancy Pelosi’s political predictions.

[mc_name name=’Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’P000197′ ] says Democrats can recapture control of the House in 2016 by riding Hillary Clinton’s coattails.

“Yes, we can win the House,” the California Democrat said during a sit-down interview in her Capitol office.

“If she runs, she will win the nomination. And if she’s our nominee, she clearly — I mean, the campaign, the joint effort — would be one that could not only take her into office but would [pull Democrats to victory],” Pelosi said.

why, you may ask would this be so?

“There’s opportunity, all kinds of statistics now about if the Democrats have a presidential candidate who … wins by 52 percent — that’s over 20 [House] seats,” Pelosi added. “And so 53 [percent] is a victory [for House Democrats].”

This prediction is based on a three legged stool: Hillary Clinton’s nomination is inevitable; Hillary Clinton’s win is inevitable; and bad math.

Hillary Clinton’s nomination is inevitable.

If you were alive in 2007, you know Clinton’s nomination is inevitable.

The bottom line?  Hillary’s electoral strength has grown in the last quarter and she is better positioned today than ever before to become the next President of the United Sates.  Recent polls have her at or near 40% with leads of 15-20 points over her nearest competitors. Voters yearn for change and they say that Hillary has the strength and experience to actually bring about that change. Hillary’s message: that her strength and experience will bring real change that America needs, is resonating strongly with voters.

That is Clinton’s great political talent. She is inevitable, always has been, always will be. The Politico has reported on why Democrats are jittery over a Clinton candidacy.

Hillary Clinton’s election are inevitable.

The same inexorable power that gets Hillary the Democrat nomination guarantees a win. Because Democrats always win. As President [mc_name name=’Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’K000148′ ]. A Clinton candidacy, if it actually gets to that point, will play out in the context of [mc_name name=’Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000566′ ]’s Benghazi investigation, a civil suit alleging Bill Clinton pal Jeffrey Epstein handed out teenage girls as party favors to his friends, and the worst geopolitical climate in American history. Even Reagan in 1980 did not run against an foreign policy as inept, corrupt, and childish as Obama’s. And Hillary Clinton was the Secretary of State that set it all into motion.

The other problem Clinton will face both in the primary and in a putative general election is that she is not only not likable and not terribly bright but she will be the same age as Ronald Reagan when he won election. Culturally, it doesnt’ seem likely that we will ever elect some 69 years old to be president again. Likewise, there is no way the first woman president is going to be a wizened, be-cankled, 69-year old Hillary Clinton.

Bad math.

The GOP currently holds 247 seats and the Democrats 188. To regain control of the House, the Democrats need to 218 seats, or a net gain of 30. A net 30 is not impossible but tying it to a presidential race is simply wrong.

2012 Obama 51.1% House change Dem +8

2008 Obama 52.9% House change Dem +24

Let’s go back and look at real thrashings, something unlikely to happen in 2016:

1984 Reagan 58.8% House change Republican +16

1972 Nixon 60.7% House change Republican +12

You can see that even big wins by a presidential candidate don’t necessarily have the coattails to bring in the sea change numbers Pelosi is predicting. But repudiation of a governing party can bring huge losses (2006, Republicans -30; 2010, Democrats -64; 2014, Democrats -13) . And the climate in 2016 will be anti-Democrat in the bargain.

In the end we will see Nancy Pelosi’s prediction as valid as hers that the Democrats would keep the House in 2010 and win it back in 2012 and 2014.