This is no surprise. The president of the United States has agreed to provide a state sponsor of terrorism with nuclear weapons, to open to flow of conventional weapons, and give them about $100 billion in the process. The White House also announced that in the future Obama is not to be called the commander-in-chief but “Rouhani’s bitch.”
This is what the deal entails.
Iranian nuclear research intensifies
This not only continues unabated but now western nations are teaching the Iranians how to speed up the process. Even though the administration had assured Congress that Iran would dismantle its centrifuge program, the truth is that they get next generation centrifuges from the West and they will be installed in a facility that is immune to strikes by non-nuclear earth penetrators.
Wednesday, the Associated Press reported on the details of one of the agreement’s five secret annexes.
Titled “Civil Nuclear Cooperation,” the annex demonstrates that, far from merely failing to block Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, the deal will facilitate Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.
The leaked secret annex has two central components.
The first involves the underground uranium- enrichment facility at Fordow. Built inside a mountain, the Fordow complex is considered resistant to air strikes.
According to the AP report, the Iranians have agreed to re-purpose the installation from uranium enrichment to isotope production. In turn, the six powers have agreed to provide the Iranians with next-generation centrifuges to operate it. Yet, as the AP report makes clear, “isotope production uses the same technology as enrichment and can be quickly re-engineered to enriching uranium.”
In other words, the six powers will teach Iran how to operate advanced centrifuges capable of quickly enriching uranium in an installation that is protected from aerial bombardment.
The second section of the annex relates to the heavy-water reactor at Arak. The reactor, whose construction is near completion, will be capable of producing plutonium-based atomic bombs.
According to the AP report, the six powers have agreed to provide Iran with a light-water reactor that is less capable of producing bomb-grade plutonium.
Sanctions will be lifted
US sanctions will be lifted in most areas. Even thought Obama assured Congress that “U.S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal” this is almost certainly not true. Obama has nearly plenary authority under the existing sanctions regime — this is another great example of how Congress thinks BIG THOUGHTS and does BIG THINGS and then walks away — to modify the sanctions. Despite the sanctions being law, he can legally modify the sanctions down to nothing and there is no reason to suppose he won’t.
Sanctions imposed by the UN and other nations will also be lifted. While a future president could reinstate US sanctions against Iran, now Iran effectively owns two permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China, and the odds of them allowing sanctions to be reinstated there when Iran breaches its treaty obligations approach zero.
The arms embargoes go away
Just last week the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff testified before Congress:
Moreover, lifting the embargo would allow Iran to ship arms openly to Mr. Assad, just as Russia does. While Iran is supplying Mr. Assad now, the supplies are sent covertly.
The issue raises such strong feelings that Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the soon-to-depart chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was adamant on the issue when, alongside Mr. Carter, he testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“Under no circumstances should we relieve pressure on Iran relative to ballistic missile capabilities and arms trafficking,” he said.
Reports now indicate that the embargo on conventional weapons will be lifted no later the five years from now. That means Iran will be legally able to export arms to its allies in the region, like Syria’s Assad. We don’t know when that embargo will end, but as Iran’s client state Russia is actively arming Assad we can assume Moscow will push for an early end. The embargo on ballistic missiles will end in eight years. I’m sure the Saudis and Turks have noticed this and are placing orders even now. What this part of the deal has done is legitimize Iran’s role as a troublemaker and state sponsor of terror and it will set off a regional arms race.
Iran can limit inspections
We knew this was going to happen. The IAEA can request to inspect nuclear sites but Iran has the right to say no. There is no way to verify what the Iranians are doing in the nuclear facilities the West is equipping with new generation equipment.
There is no way to verify Iranian nuclear research
The key to retarding Iran’s nuclear development is understanding how far the got. Technically, the Iranians agreed to cooperate with the IAEA. In reality, they have everything they want, no reason to cooperate, and the West has no tools or will to force cooperation.
Obama has said he will veto a Congressional action
Again, this in no surprise but now he has said it:
President Barack Obama hailed the Iran nuclear accord on Tuesday morning from the White House, vowing to veto any congressional attempt to block its implementation.
Obama described the agreement, reached in Vienna hours earlier, as a safeguard against a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that would peacefully strengthen national security over the next decade. He warned that the international community would not support endless sanctions, and that failure to back this diplomatic solution could increase the chance of military action for him or a future president.
Thanks to the feckless Bob Corker, Obama does not have to submit the agreement for approval, rather the mechanism allows the deal to go into effect with only 34 Democrat senators toeing the line.
We are well and truly hosed on this. If the next president holds the office for two terms we can nearly guarantee that he will have to fight a war with a nuclear equipped Iran and he will have to take seriously the idea of Iran-backed terrorists armed with nuclear devices.