trump-and-carson

Another day, another poll.

This one is of likely Iowa caucus goers from Quinnipiac.

Take aways.

The race between Trump and Carson is tightening.

Trump continues to pull a large chunk of the self-identified Tea Party folks. Carson gets his support for Evangelical Christians (Carson is a Seventh Day Adventist so this group would seem to be responding more to Carson’s faith message than his actual denomination) and conservatives. This latter parallels what Neil posted on yesterday.

Jeb Bush and John Kasich are tied.

They are not only tied at 6%, they are also fighting for the same demographic slice: moderate-to-liberal, high income voters. This is not surprising given their message of “hey, that status quo is working pretty good for me.”

Scott Walker is not a factor.

This has been a helluva downward trajectory for Walker. From kicking ass and taking names in Iowa back in January to rating below “Don’t know” in this poll. He may not be dead but he’s giving a damned good impression of it.

Most disliked.

When asked which candidate they would not support, the winner was Trump (29%) followed by Bush (23%). For Bush this means that the number of people who will not support him outnumber his partisans by almost 4 : 1. Rounding out the field are Christie (14%), Graham (12%), and Paul (11%).

If Trump drops out?

The big winner is Ben Carson. 30% of Trump voters give Ben Carson their second choice. In second place is [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] with 11%.

Read the full poll.