This is not a good sign in Jeb-land. And back in the days when we were JebState this would have brought tears to our eyes.
Right to Rise, the “super PAC” supporting Jeb Bush that has dominated the ad-spending battle so far, has canceled up to a third of its ad reservations in March 1 primary states, according to media buying sources.
By early January, the group had reservations for about $10 million in the Super Tuesday states of Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, Oklahoma and Georgia, having booked them far in advance to ensure lower rates.
The cancellation has not, at this point, been accompanied by increased advertising in South Carolina, whose Republican primary voters cast their ballots on Saturday. Mr. Bush is depending on a strong showing there to capitalize on a his fourth-place finish in New Hampshire, which his campaign said had “reset the race.”
The group said it was using the cancellation to help prioritize future buys.
This is the lay of the land.
Right to Rise spent $39 million more in the 4th quarter of 2015 than it raised. Savor that for a moment. That is $13 million per month that it can’t replace. We are coming up on the end of February and there was a primary in New Hampshire in which Jeb was the top spender. Unless Mike Murphy has suddenly discovered the virtue of austerity. Right to Rise is one or two months away from going bust. Quite honestly, ad cancellations for Super Tuesday may be meaningless. Unless Jeb does very well in South Carolina, and by that I mean he finishes in a strong third place AND knocks John Kasich out of the race, he is not going to be around for Super Tuesday.