Public domain image via CBP Flickr photostream

Public domain image via CBP Flickr photostream

US Customs and Border Protection is reporting that apprehensions of illegals at the US border fell by 41% this August compared to August 2016 and they declined by 24% when one compares October to August 2017 with that same period in 2016.

cbp-august

If you look at the data for the last five years, you see that the apprehensions this August are lower than any of those previous years. You can also see the radical change in apprehensions that begin in February.

The fact is that apprehensions on the border are significantly lower this fiscal year than they were last. It is also indisputable that the number would be much lower if the October-January data was in the range of what we are seeing now. It is also indisputable that even if apprehensions have reached their equilibrium at the 25-30K/month level that this will be a sea change of about 10,000 fewer per month than what we saw in the past five years.

While it is true that apprehensions don’t count those that weren’t apprehended, policy changes and anecdotal evidence indicates that the a larger percentage of those attempting to cross are being apprehended. When you couple that with a more energetic apprehension policy, the stop of the catch-and-release program, and increased deportations a great deal has been accomplished on border security in a very short amount of time.

If you want to believe Trump is failing on this, I won’t stand in your way, but I’ll take failure on this scale any day of the week.