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There is a lot of howling and mewling going on on the left right now over the retirement of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.

But the fact is that the Democrats are 100% irrelevant to the upcoming vote. Not only are there no holds or filibusters for Supreme Court nominations, at least two Democrats–Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp–will vote to confirm simply because they are facing very, very tough re-election campaigns in states President Trump carried by 41 and 36 points, respectively. Chuck Schumer knows this and right now he’s playing to the cheap seats and low IQs in his party by trying to compare Kennedy’s nomination to that of Merrick Garland.

The real danger to President Trump being able to place a second originalist…that is increasingly, when applied to judges, means that they can read…on the Supreme Court is in the hands of about three GOP senators: John McCain, Jeff Flake, and Susan Collins. Right now the Senate breakout is 51-49 (47 Dems plus Angus King and Bernie Sanders). To stop the nomination, the Democrats have to flip two GOP senators while holding their caucus intact. Once you get past those three, it is difficult to find a name on the list of GOP senators who would vote against a Federalist Society vetted candidate. And I’m not sure the latter part of the equation, holding the Democrat caucus firm, is even possible.

The weak sister on the list is Shelly Moore Capito who is something of a squish on abortion and let’s face it, abortion is probably the hot button issue for this nomination.

In reality, stopping a non-Roy Moore, non-Judge Jeanine, non-Michael Cohen candidate looks to be an uphill slog. The odds of McCain voting at all approach zero. If he’s absent, then the Democrats will have one member of their caucus sit it out, that person will probably be Heitkamp. Now the Senate would be 50-48 but there are only two possible flips and probably at least one defection so Mike Pence casts the deciding vote.

The bottom line here is that unless several GOP senators jump ship, there is no way Trump’s nominee is stopped.