This citizen journalism image taken on Monday, June 18, 2012 and provided by the Rebels Battalion of Baba Amro, purports to show Syrian rebels holding their weapons as they prepare to fight against Syrian troops, in Homs province. Syrian rebels clashed with soldiers for hours overnight in a northwestern province and inflicted heavy casualties on government forces, activists said Wednesday. The fighting came after the head the of the country’s U.N. observers said his forces had come under attack and cast doubt on the future of the mission. (AP Photo/The Rebels Battalion of Baba Amro) THE ASSOCIATED PRESS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THE AUTHENTICITY, CONTENT, LOCATION OR DATE OF THIS HANDOUT PHOTO

 

If you follow the conflict in Syria (thanks, President Obama for turning a periodic massacre of dissidents by the Assad regime into a multi-year, festival of slaughter and ethnic cleansing), then you know the war there is coming down to the short strokes. ISIS and various other anti-Assad forces are basically vanquished and have been pushed into a concentrated area in Idlib province (upper left of the below map). There are an estimated 30,000 opposition fighters here and it will be a bloody fight for Assad’s forces to eradicate them as their only choices are to die fighting or to be executed after surrender.

From BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45404086

 

The logical course of action would be for Assad to use some of the stock of chemical weapons that Syria totally gave up in 2014 to crush strategic strongpoints that would permit Assad’s forces to overrun the area.

Interestingly, if you go back and review the major chemical attacks that have been carried out with the chemical weapons that Syria gave up in 2014–you can never remind people too often about this–one of the signals before significant Syrian chemical attacks are statements by Russia and various Syrian propaganda outlets, in best Alex Jones style, that the opposition forces are planning a “false flag” chemical attack. Sort of like these from the Russian embassy and media outlets and two prominent pro-Assad bloggers and Twitter personalities.

Combine this with President Trump unexpectedly canceling a Labor Day golf outing:

And with the sudden focus on the subject by President Trump, Nikki Haley, and the State Department, it seems that credible evidence exists of an imminent chemical attack by the Assad regime.

As we’ve seen before, a Trump red line is not really the same as an Obama red line. When you couple this warning with President Trump’s weakness on any issue dealing with Russia, one can anticipate that any US military response, should it be impossible to deter Assad, will have a greater scope than the previous attacks which focused only on targets directly associated with the chemical attacks. One can anticipate that there is a much better than 50-50 chance that Iranian controlled targets will be hit. Likewise, there will probably be strikes close enough to Russian targets to warrant the issue of brown trousers to Russian troops.

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