Earlier in the year, Trump looked sufficiently weak in polling that many partisans–the media, on the left, and NeverTrump–were gleeful about the chances of the Democrats to take the White House. In fact, I think that the collection of dunces, clowns, and misfits the Democrats have assembled for this campaign is a direct outgrowth of that giddiness. There was a feeling that anybody could beat Trump and that this was the best chance the Democrats would ever have of fundamentally changing the values and way of life of this nation.
A roaring economy, shoring up his standing with social conservatives through aggressive support of pro-life and pro-family policies, and a determination to extract us from our 20 year war in Iraq and Afghanistan along with our seven-year-long war of aggression in Syria, has convinced a lot of doubters that Trump is trustworthy on policy issues. But now a new series of polls that have just been released should be giving the Democrats cause for alarm.
First up is the Morning Consult/Politico poll. It interviewed 1,997 registered voters and, allegedly, has an margin of error of 2 percentage points. This graph shows the change in head-to-head match-ups between Trump and the Democrat field and how it has changed since June.
While Trump led Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg in June what is noticeable is the collapse of support for Biden, that Sanders and Trump are tied, and that now Trump’s gaining support in relation to Warren.
But polling suggests that many primary voters are backing Biden because of his perceived general-election strength. Forty percent of Democratic primary voters said in September that they thought Biden has the best chance of beating Trump in 2020, more than twice the share who said the same of any other candidate. To that extent, declining returns in head-to-head matchups against Trump may pose a unique risk to his prospects for securing the nomination.
That may be true, but it doesn’t answer the question of where Biden voters go when Biden folds…because he’s going to. In previous elections there would have been another Central Casting “moderate” Democrat in the field ready to take that vote share. Now everyone running in the Democrat primary is so far left of Biden that you can’t even see them. Will they hold their nose and vote for Elizabeth Warren? Will they stay home? Or will they decide that Donald Trump is closer to their values than the Democrat?
Rasmussen has Trump beating Biden head to head. Rasmussen catches a lot of crap because its polls are seen as overly friendly to Trump but Rasmussen was THE most accurate poll in 2016:
USA Today/Suffolk University, is similarly grim:
In this one, not only does Trump beat any Democrat, but he is more popular than Nancy Pelosi or Congress. Ominously the favorable/unfavorable rating of the parties is essentially tied.
There is really exactly one thing that has taken place over the last few months to change this: the drive to impeachment. The big question is whether major Democrat donors allow impeachment to continue even as it looks like an electoral Armageddon.