A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general has threatened to close the Straits of Gibraltar to traffic if the US continues to support Israel's crusade to root out the terrorists in Gaza.

“They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, [the Strait of] Gibraltar and other waterways,” Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior member of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said today.

The general did not explain how Iran, which does not border the Mediterranean, intended to make good on its threat.

This threat should not come as a shock to anyone after the flaccid US and EU response to the Houthis in Yemen, an Iranian proxy, effectively closing the Red Sea and, by extension, the Suez Canal to commercial traffic. With two carrier strike groups in the area of operations, the US has stood idly by while drones and missiles attacked neutral shipping, and two ships were hijacked. Since then, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the formation of an allegedly international coalition to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Red Sea; see Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Expected to Announce International Coalition to Protect Red Sea Shipping. When that coalition was announced, it became apparent that it was not a serious effort; see The New Red Sea Naval Coalition Is Pure Biden: Weak, Ineffectual, and Designed to Encourage our Enemies. Since then, the coalition has disintegrated (Biden's Plan to Safeguard Red Sea Trade From Houthis May Match Afghanistan in Incompetence) until it consists of two US Navy destroyers and two allied frigates (Red Sea Security Coalition Melts Down As Member Nations Refuse to Accept US Leadership. The primary reason for the failure of the coalition to materialize is that allied nations have made it clear that they will not place their ships under US command.

As I've noted several times (for instance, Major Shipping Lines Avoid Red Sea; Is It Just the Houthis or Should We Be Looking Deeper?), we need to look at the closure of the Red Sea as something bigger than the Houthis acting out in response to Israel kicking terrorist ass in Gaza. This is a test run of closing maritime chokepoints.

Even though the Houthis claim they are targeting ships owned by Israeli interests or sailing for Israeli ports, that claim doesn't appear to match reality. The real objective appears to be a test run on shutting down two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Without access to both ends of the Red Sea, a large portion of the world's shipping will be routed around South Africa, resulting in price increases and disrupted supply chains.

Credit: Port Economics, Management and Policy

Iran and its Houthi proxy have effectively shut down one entrance of the Mediterranean. It appears that Iran has launched at least one strike against a merchant ship in the Arabian Sea on the sea lane used to enter the Red Sea.

UKMTO WARNING 018/DEC/2023

ATTACK – INCIDENT 018 UPDATE 01

UKMTO have received a report of an attack by Uncrewed Aerial System (UAS) on a vessel causing an explosion and fire. https://t.co/qFzIsjDvnj#MaritimeSecurity #marsec pic.twitter.com/gBARms8K9T

— United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) (@UK_MTO) December 23, 2023

DRONE ATTACK ON MV CHEM PLUTO-Indian Coast Guard Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre,Mumbai received information regarding fire onboard MV Chem Pluto. The Merchant ship with 20 Indian &01 Vietnamese Crew was reportedly attacked by a suspected drone strike on aerial platform.(1/6) pic.twitter.com/CpioW9MfT9

— Indian Coast Guard (@IndiaCoastGuard) December 23, 2023

So, how would Iran shut down trans-Mediterranean commerce? The obvious answer is they would operate out of Libya and use drones or possibly mobile anti-ship missiles. The Libyan government has been touting improved relations with Iran, and the IRGC has the skills to operate independently. Attacks could be launched from clandestine Iranian bases aboard ships at sea. One such ship, the MV Beshad, is working in the Red Sea. It is believed to have had a role in the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader; see BREAKING: Iranian Proxies Hijack Israeli-Owned Ship in International Waters. In 1987, Iranian ships mining the Persian Gulf led to escorting ships (Operation Earnest Will) and our brief naval war with Iran (Operation Praying Mantis). The Straits of Gibraltar are very vulnerable to a clandestine mining operation. (Thanks to "Louise1" in the comments for jogging my memory about mines.)

The car carrier Galaxy Leader was seized by Yemen’s Houthi rebels after it steamed past an Iranian “spy ship” with its AIS switched off, according to tanker tracking groups.

The Behshad is registered as a cargo vessel but is believed to be gathering intelligence for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran near the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb strait that controls access to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, according to Dryad Global.

The uppermost red dot on this map indicates its location.

We need to wake up to the fact that the weakness of Biden's national security team, particularly the clowns on the National Security Council, has created a very hazardous situation for the free world. A trade route carrying over ten percent of the world's maritime traffic has been shut down. The cost of diverting around the Cape of Good Hope will add about $1 million and about 12 days per round trip. The weakness and vacillation demonstrated here will encourage similar activities elsewhere. This will last until the US can sort itself out again and step back from sucking up to the Iranians for reasons that are, at best, opaque or until another maritime power steps in to protect shipping.