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Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

By streiff | 10:45 AM on December 25, 2023
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: Public Domain

Merry Christmas, everyone. Welcome to the "First Christmas in Ukraine on December 25" edition of the Ukraine update. In case you're wondering why this one is in VIP, I didn't want to lead off Christmas Day with a war story.

The weather has brought major fighting to a halt, though there are a couple of developments that merit monitoring. As I've said before, the combat has now shifted to Washington and Brussels. 

The Congress adjourned without a vote on aid for Ukraine. Supermanorities in both chambers support, but House Republicans are having a go at playing failure theater by trying to force Biden and the Democrats to act on border security. If I thought there was actually a plan for making this happen, I'd be a lot less cynical. All I can see coming out of this is a fundraising campaign and a plea to "give us more seats in the House and Senate, and we'll secure our border." News Flash: There is not a majority in either party in the House or Senate that really gives a rat's patootie about border security. If there were, we wouldn't have this problem. This "fight" is for your entertainment. Eventually, aid for Ukraine will pass.

Inside the EU, Hungary's Viktor Orban is blocking assistance to Ukraine. He blocked talks on Ukraine's accession to the EU last week until German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Orban to leave the room and "grab a coffee." He's now blocking a 50 billion euro aid package. Consensus is building to strip Hungary of its voting rights in the EU.

Two operational items have bubbled up that will probably gain more importance. First, the Ukrainians shot down five Russian strike aircraft in the last week. Three were simultaneous engagements by a Patriot system between Kherson and Odesa. This has led to a temporary halt in Russian airstrikes as they try to develop a solution to a major problem. In addition, 10 Russian strike aircraft were destroyed or damaged by a drone attack on their base. The loss of that many aircraft will affect Russian operations. Second, the Russians are using CS gas against the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Dneipr River. This is a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a signatory. (I know, I laughed, too, writing that). CS is a legal riot control agent, but the CWC says, "Each State Party undertakes not to use riot control agents as a method of warfare." 

The ability of the Ukrainians to use air defense systems to establish air superiority will be crucial next spring. The Russians refraining from using lethal chemical agents is doubtful.

A final note. These updates are time-consuming to write and, I imagine, to read. I appreciate you taking the time to read them, and I appreciate good-faith comments. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and yours.

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker AnnouncementUSnd the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear 

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies 

PutiUSWar, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and TumbleweeUS Are Blowing Through Sevastopol

Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat 

Putin's War, Week 89. Zelensky Gets an EU Invitation, the EU Looks East and the Russians Have a Timetable

Putin's War, Week 88. TIME Magazine and the Offensive GEUs a Postmortem blindside Zelensky 

Putin's War, Week 87. The Battlefield Shifts to Washington and Brussels

Putin's War, Week 86. The Very Resistible Force Meets the Immovable Object in Donbas

Putin's War, Week 85. The Curtain Goes Down on the Ukrainian Offensive and Russia Rolls for a Hard Six

Putin's War, Week US. Slovakia StUSs Ukraine Aid as the Spring Offensive Nears Culminating Point

Many more are available at this link.


Politico-Strategic Level

Military Aid to Ukraine

I caught some grief in the comments in my last update over the relative levels of military and non-military aid provided to Ukraine by the US. There is a perception...I can only call it the "Tucker Carlson Effect"... which insists that the US is providing most of the aid to Ukraine and that aid a) prevents our southern border from being secured and b) is a major contributor to the national debt.

These charts come from a Council on Foreign Relations document titled How Much Aid Has the US Sent Ukraine? Here Are Six Charts. 

As a percent of GDP, the US is one of the smaller contributors to Ukraine aid. 

The US is the single largest contributor in terms of military aid, but 52% ($48.6 billion) of all military aid is not from the US. While the US leads in military aid, as you can see, the overwhelming majority of economic and humanitarian aid comes from EU institutions and European countries. If you don't trust my math, go to the original chart, break out your calculator, and do the math yourself.


As I posted last week in Most Ukraine Aid Upgrades Our Defense Industrial Base, So Why Are Its Opponents So Determined to End It?, over 90% of US aid goes to US companies. Most of that aid is jumpstarting a defense industrial base that was in a death spiral. Ukraine aid does not affect border security unless you are willing to claim that Joe Biden had the border under control in 2021, and the Ukraine War stopped that effort. The Ukraine War does not affect the national debt because it is only 1% of the federal budget.

Do me a favor; if you think I'd lie to win an internet argument with someone I couldn't pick out of a two-man line-up, don't read my posts. Just don't read any of them.

US Gets Military Basing Rights in Finland

In a matter of days the US and Finland will sign a defence cooperation agreement, which will grant the U.S. military access across the Nordic country and its border with Russia.

This will allow the US swift military access and aid to Finland in case of conflict. 

There are currently 15 facilities listed in Finland which the US will have full access to - which will include the ability to store military equipment and ammunition there. 

The agreement shows four airbases, a military port and railway access to northern Finland, where the US will have a storage area alongside a railway that leads up to the Russian border. Link.

According to Putin's catchfarts, NATO troops training Ukrainian troops was an unacceptable violation of Moscow's unique right to set the foreign and domestic policy of any country it wished. One of the direct outcomes of this bullsh** rationale for an unjustified attack on a weaker neighbor is that Putin pushed two previously neutral countries into NATO and can enjoy having US troops less than 100 miles from St. Petersburg.

German Troops Stationed in Lithuania

This is the first instance of an original NATO nation permanently basing troops in a former Warsaw Pact nation...or, in this case, a former Soviet Socialist Republic.

I can't imagine Latvia and Estonia won't follow suit.

Diversity Is Our Strength

Just a reminder that Russia is 15% Muslim, and Moscow, the capital of that fearless defender of Christianity, has the largest Muslim population of any European capital; see Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia.

The Mind Boggles

For reasons that aren't clear, though perhaps stung by several reports of massive Russian casualties (US Intelligence Assessment Points to the Destruction of Russia's Pre-Ukraine Invasion Army), Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu gave a press briefing on Ukrainian losses. It was probably the most Russian thing you'll see this week. 

According to Shoigu, the Ukrainian Army has been destroyed several times over. For instance, Ukraine started the war with about 2600 tanks and 3200 artillery and rocket systems.

The War Is Over, Putin Fellatista Edition

How little self-respect can you have to post crap like the screenshots in this "X"?

Russian Politicians Say "Bring the Boys Home"

I'm always skeptical of these kinds of announcements because moral courage isn't a Russian trait. Anyone who had it after the end of Tsar Nicholas II's reign died during the Great Terror. On one level, it is reasonable. Up until very recently, it was undesirable Asian and Central Asian minorities who'd been doing the dying in Ukraine. Now, the pain is spreading to ethnic Russian areas. As much as I'd like to believe it is legit. I can't escape the feeling there is a game being played here.

More Ukrainian Children Return Home

Three more kidnapped Ukrainian children have returned home.

This is good news, but the Russians admit to having taken over 700,000 Ukrainian children from their parents with the intent of giving them to Russian families; see Putin's War, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and Tumbleweeds Are Blowing Through Sevastopol – RedState.

Operational Level

The operational tempo is driven by the weather right now. We are at that sweet spot where there is snow, but there hasn't been a sustained period of freezing temperatures.

The Ukrainians are heavily engaged in creating their own fortification belts on the border with Russia and Belarus. This shows that someone is following the planning maxim of considering what the enemy can do (capabilities) rather than trying to anticipate what they will do (intentions). Capability-based planning involves more work, but it prevents a lot of very unpleasant surprises.

Where's Fauci When You Really Need Him?

Another danger has become apparent: hantavirus. There are reports of epidemic levels of hantavirus hitting sections of the Russian front lines. Hantaviruses are rodent-borne and are transmitted by inhaling dust containing mouse poo or eating food contaminated by it. Hantavirus infections run the spectrum from mild to fatal. 

Mice and rats are a scourge of any long-term encampment or fortification. The absence of low-level leadership and knowledge of basic hygiene are the causes.

 

So far, there are no reports of the contagion hitting Ukrainian troops, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening. Here, a soldier complains of damage to a Javelin ATGM by mice.

World War II was the first war where combat casualties exceeded disease and non-battle deaths. We could be seeing a return to the past developing.

Meat Assault Forming

I posted earlier about how if a US intelligence assessment of Russian casualties was close to accurate, it meant that trained Russian combat forces had ceased to exist; see US Intelligence Assessment Points to the Destruction of Russia's Pre-Ukraine Invasion Army. Judge for yourself. 

Note there is no body armor. The different kinds of uniforms and equipment are caused by Russian soldiers having to purchase their own gear.

Aerial Ambush

Two weeks ago (Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights), I discussed how Ukraine was making incremental progress in Kherson by denying Russian manned and unmanned aerial platforms access to the battlespace. In the same post, I covered Russia losing a Su-24 strike fighter near Snake Island to what appeared to be a Patriot missile.

Last week, three Russian Su-34s were shot down in rapid sequence by a Ukrainian Patriot system as they were attacking the Ukrainian-occupied area on the left bank of the Dnieper.


This is an excellent resource for understanding the background and the operation's unfolding.

 

This video is of two of those Su-24 striking Ukrainian positions.

This is believed to be an image of the contrails of a Patriot making the interception. The text is from the semi-official Russian "FighterBormber" Telegram channel.

The result has been a total cessation of Russian fixed-wing attacks on Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

This is not the first time a Patriot system has appeared unexpectedly to the embarrassment of the Russian Air Force. In May, Russia lost two strike fighters and two electronic warfare helicopters within just a few minutes inside of Russia; see Four Russian Aircraft Were Shot Down Over Russia in a Couple of Minutes and No One Is Giving Straight Answers.

What a difference a year makes.


Russia Claims Ukraine Is Using F-16s

The usually reasonable Rybar Telegram Channel claims F-16s are already in operation in Ukraine. The Russians are already claiming to have shot them down, and, more mysteriously, they claim an F-16 shot down a Su-34.

Logistics Is the Key

Every time I read about how many troops Russia allegedly has in Ukraine, I want to scream. Just like the number of soldiers Russia had on the right bank of the Dnieper River was irrelevant because their center of gravity was the two railroad bridges over that river, Russian forces in Ukraine were supplied by two rail lines. One runs through coastal Donbas from Rostov-on-Don. The other depends on the Kerch Strait Bridge.

The fact that supplies to Russian forces in western Donbas are being shipped in from Crimea tells you two things. First, the rail line from Rostov-on-Don is maxed out from supplying Russian operations near Kupiansk, Bakhmut, and Adiivka. Second, any disruption in the rail line from Crimea has a direct impact on the ability of Russian forces supplied out of Melitopol to carry out their mission.

Ukrainian tanks don't need to wash their tracks in the Sea of Azov to force the evacuation of most of the so-called "land bridge" to Crimea. It is only necessary that one rail line be cut.

Germany Commits to Building Drone Factory in Ukraine

Ukraine now has factories coming online to build Leopard tanks and Swedish CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles. It is increasing its production of a homegrown 155mm self-propelled artillery piece. This is in addition to repair/rebuild depots. No one thinks this will be a short war anymore.

EU Exceeds Artillery Ammunition Commitment

For those slow in math, this represents a 30% overproduction and provides Ukraine with 3500 rounds per day of the 6-7,000 rounds required. In the US, we are slowly opening additional production lines. The "shell hunger" Ukrainian commanders have complained about is going away next year.

New Weapons

New Domestically Produced Ukrainian Drone

The AQ 400 Scythe is just entering service. It is butt-ugly — sorry, no offense to Aidan Maese-Czeropski (Democrat Staffer Who Filmed Himself Having Sex in the Capitol Fired, and the Cover-Up Is Underway) — but it carries 70-pound warhead nearly 470 miles. According to reports, production is now at 100 units per month, with a rapid scale-up projected to 1,000 units per month. It doesn't have the throw weight or range of the Iranian-built Shahed drone, but it has enough of both to hit any target in the theater and do significant damage.

Combat Operations

Tank vs. Tank

A Russian T-72 brews up after being hit by a shell from a Ukrainian T-64.

The difference in quality between Ukrainian and Russian tank and Infantry Fighting Vehicle crews is now very pronounced in favor of Ukraine.

Strike on Ammunition Dump

This video of a Ukrainian artillery strike on a stockpile of rockets for a Russian BM-21 multiple rocket launch system is a textbook example of what happens when noncommissioned officer leadership is absent. No effort was made to conceal the dump from aerial observation, and debris scattered about would be sure to draw attention from drones. The lack of dispersal guaranteed that the entire supply would be destroyed if discovered.

As a bonus, there is a commentary on Russian logistics. The rockets are stored on the ground, making the lower tiers vulnerable to water damage. The absence of pallets shows the ammunition was loaded manually at the main ammunition supply point and off-loaded manually at this forward area dump. 

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Dodgeball

A Russian soldier tries to dodge an FPV drone. You have the point of view of the FPV pilot and the controlling drone.

One on Six

This video is of one Ukrainian soldier in the Kupiansk area holding off six Russian soldiers...with a little help from a grenade-dropping friend.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

The Russian Army made slight gains in this area, but the tactical position remains a stalemate.


Kupiansk

This attack on Kupiansk is pretty typical of what we are seeing all along the Northern Front. At the beginning of the video, you can see four destroyed Russian vehicles in a cluster at the center of the screen. Two BMPs with infantry riding on top emerge from a road through the forest and hang a sharp right turn heading to the left of the screen. At 0:12, you see a top-attack ATGM, probably a Javelin, launch from the lower right corner. At 0:13, the trailing BMP (IMO) goes off the road and hits an anti-tank mine. At 0:14, you can see the Javelin descending on the leading BMP and detonating at 0:16, scattering hair, teeth, and eyeballs over several dozen square meters.

Here, elements of a Ukrainian mechanized infantry brigade turn back a Russian assault. 

This Russian mass infantry attack on the Lyman-Kremina axis was broken up by mortar and artillery fire, but particularly by 155mm DPICM, which you can see at 0:17 and 0:35.

Donbas

The general situation remains unchanged. The Russians have made minor advances in some areas, but there is no indication that these will transform into a measurable offensive.

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka


Avdiivka

The Russians continue to attack all along the Avdiivka Salient. They achieved minor success near Stepove, but all territorial gains have come at a very high price.


There are over 100 destroyed Russian vehicles in the 5x6 kilometer square in front of Ukrainian fortifications in Avdiivka.

This is an engagement at Stepove on the northern shoulder of the  Avdiivka Salient.

This is in the same area featuring an M-2 Bradley; I'm not sure if it is the same one as above.

For us Cold War veterans who Intelligence weenies tried to terrify with horror stories of how the BMP couldn't be stopped. Here is a quintessential gunfight between a BMP and a Brad. 

The superior thermal sights on the Bradley let it engage the BMP before it can be seen. At 0:42, DPICM strikes and scores several hits. The video doesn't tell us the end of the story, but that doesn't take a lot of imagination. The Brad's Bushmaster chaingun has hit the BMP dozens of times, several in the thinly armored rear. The BMP's armor was pierced on top by the DPICM. And the BMP had stopped moving with its rear toward the Brad.

Russian Logistics Center Hit

This video is from a Russian logistics center/fuel depot/troop staging area in Horlivka, Donetsk. It was attacked by unidentified means.

Su-34 Shot Down

Upthread, I reported on a trio of Russian Su-35 strike fighters dropped in Kherson. Add to that a fourth Su-34 shot down over the Black Sea near Mariupol.

What makes this engagement so interesting is that credible Russian Telegram channels claim a Ukrainian F-16 shot it down.

Collaborator Targeted in Drone Attack

Prominent quisling Sergei Pavlov was targeted for assassination. His van was hit by two drones. Reports say he is hospitalized in critical condition and has lost a leg.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

The lines in this area remain stable, with the Ukrainians giving up some territory southwest of Robotyne. The consensus is that the Ukrainians have retreated to more easily defensible ground, which would fit in with what we know of their overall strategy. Regardless, they will have to pay for that same real estate again in the future.

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka;


Kherson

There has been no reported progress on this front.


Own Goal

A Russian Su-25 was shot down by a Russian missile in the Kherson area.

Odesa

Su-30 Shot Down

A Russian Su-30 strike fighter was hit by an anti-aircraft missile shortly after launching a Kh-59 cruise missile at Odesa. There is no word on the target of the missile or the damage.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Drone Attacks Hit Multiple Targets

Storm Shadow Strike

This attack is notable as it is the first reported attack on a Russian strategic communications site.

Russia

Mass Drone Attack

The Russians are claiming that a swarm of 35 Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian airbase at Mozorovsk, Russia, which is 100 miles northeast of Rostov-on-Don. It is a base for Su-24 and Su-34 strike fighters. The Russians released a video claiming to show that all 35 were shot down.

Russian Telegram reports indicate that two Su-34s were damaged beyond repair, and another ten were damaged.

Russia Invaded...Again

I've posted several times on the Russian separatist contingent of the Ukrainian Army invading Russia's Belgorod Oblast — see Putin’s War, Week 65. G7 Calls for War Crimes Trials and Reparations, F-16 Pilots Start Training, and Russia Is Invaded, Russia Evacuates Nuclear Weapons Stockpile as ‘Dissident’ Invasion of Russia Continues, Putin’s War, Weeks 66 and 67. The Offensive Starts, and Putin's War, Week 75. Putin Cucked, Moscow Droned Again, and the Industrial War Hits High Gear. Well, it's happened again.

What's Next

General Mud and General Winter have joined forces to stop major combat operations until the ground freezes. Until then, we can expect to see a continuation of the disjointed Russian assaults all along the front. There were rumors that the Russian high command had promised Putin they would deliver the entirety of the historical area of Donbas by January 1. At this point, things aren't looking all that good for that promise.

Ukraine's strategy continues to be the attrition of Russian forces, preserving their own strength, and bringing new units online. Whether there is another Spring Offensive or if Ukraine continues to pursue its strategy of attrition depends on Jake Sullivan's merry band of imbeciles continue to slow-walk weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, hoping to force a negotiated settlement rather than pursuing the easiest and least costly strategy of giving Ukraine what it needs to expel the Russians from everything seized since 2014 and forcing Crimea into a demilitarized status.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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