For the second time in less than a month, senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard officers have been killed in a suspected Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria. Iran's unofficial Mehr news agency said, "The Revolutionary Guards' Syria intel chief, his deputy, and two other Guards members were martyred in the attack on Syria by Israel." Updated reports say that five IRGC officers, plus some of their Syrian counterparts, were killed in the attack.

#BREAKING Four IRGC officers including deputy commander of IRGC Quds Force for Intelligence Affairs in Syria Brigadier General Sadegh Omidzadeh and his deputy have been killed in an Israeli missile strike on Syria's capital Damascus on Saturday, Iranian media confirmed. pic.twitter.com/YoZf4ztwYG

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) January 20, 2024

The icons are already circulating.

#Photo: The five Iranians(IRGC) eliminated in Damascus captured in a single image. pic.twitter.com/WCFUXTQQa1

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 20, 2024

The intelligence chief, Sadegh Omidzadeh, was a close associate of Brigadier General Sayyed Reza Mousavi, the IRGC commander in Syria, who, along with several associates, was killed in a similar manner shortly before Christmas 2023.

BACKGROUND:

Senior Iranian Commander in Syria Killed by an Israeli Airstrike; Iran Vows Retribution

Report: Israel Follows Up Killing of Senior Iranian Commander in Syria, Dispatches 11 More in Damascus 

Saturday's attack and that in December look a lot like preparation of the battlefield for Israel opening hostilities in southern Lebanon, with a goal of gutting Hezbollah. 

Under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted on August 11, 2006, Hezbollah is forbidden to keep an armed presence south of the Litani River. Hezbollah violated this agreement almost as soon as it was signed. In 2017, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley conducted a very public scolding of the commander of the UN Peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, in that area over Hezbollah's infractions and UNIFIL's refusal to report or confront violations or even acknowledge that documented violations had taken place.

READ: Nikki Haley Hammers UN Peacekeeping Force For Concealing Hezbollah Rearmament 

The Hamas rampage through southern Israel on October 7 seems to have convinced the Netanyahu government that Hezbollah needed to be demolished to prevent such an event from happening in Northern Israel.

READ: Netanyahu Denying, Biden Not Talking About New Report He Talked Bibi Out of Preemptive Hezbollah Strike

Several reports say that Israel will launch an offensive against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon as early as next week unless there are signs that Hezbollah will respect UNSCR 1701.

The officials familiar with the talks understood that Israel was eyeing the end of January as a target for coming to an agreement.

The Israelis have not put forward a “hard deadline” for when they will step up their military campaign against Hezbollah, a senior U.S. official told The Washington Post, but he acknowledged that the window for negotiations is narrowing. Like others in this piece, the official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive and ongoing talks.

In response to queries about Israel’s demands, Lior Haiat, a foreign ministry spokesman, said: “The Israeli position is that we prefer a diplomatic solution, and if a diplomatic solution will not be possible, we will have to act on our own.

The targeted killings of senior IRGC officers who control Iranian intelligence and logistics support to Hezbollah and of some senior Hezbollah officers could be a first stage of the operation that would prevent Hezbollah forces from undertaking a prepared defense against Israel.

READ: Israeli Airstrike Kills Senior Hezbollah Commander in Lebanon

In the end, by his timidity and hubris, Jake Sullivan may end up giving Biden the expanded regional war and escalation of hostilities with Iran that he's tried to avoid.