One Day Before the Alabama Election, Fox News’ Latest Poll Puts a Cloud over Team Moore

Posted at 12:00 pm on December 11, 2017 by Susan Wright

With the election to fill Jeff Sessions’ vacant Senate seat a day away, Fox News isn’t offering a lot of hope to Roy Moore.

According to a new Fox News poll, Democrat Doug Jones is leading Moore with 50 percent of the vote, to Moore’s 40 percent.

Last month, the Fox News poll had Jones only 8 points ahead.

Since the accusations of inappropriate behavior with young girls emerged last month, Moore has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. Whether he’s been convincing remains to be seen.

By a 6-point margin, Alabama voters believe the allegations against Moore are true (39-33 percent).  They were more evenly divided last month, believing the accusations by just 1 point (38-37 percent).  About one quarter, 27 percent, feel it is too soon to say or have no opinion.

Among Republicans, 13 percent believe the accusations are true, 60 percent say they aren’t, and 26 percent are unsure.  In November, it was 13-62 percent (26 percent unsure).

It would seem that some are beginning to change their minds.

Demographics and interest in the election may have something to do with the poll results.

Among just the 46 percent of Alabama voters who are “extremely” interested in the race, the Democrat’s lead widens to 53-40 percent.

Jones’s lead comes mostly from nonwhites, younger voters, and women.  He’s the choice of nonwhites by 76 points (83-7 percent), by 31 points among voters under age 45 (59-28), and by 20 among women (54-34).  That jumps to 46 points among women under age 45 (67-21 percent).

Also, interestingly enough, whereas 90 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Doug Jones, only 81 percent of Republicans polled intend to vote for Roy Moore.

Twenty-nine percent of Independents go for Jones.

Moore is preferred among whites by 20 points (55-35 percent) and whites without a college degree by 33 points (61-28 percent).

Support for Moore among white evangelical Christians is down 8 points since last month: it was 73 percent in November and stands at 65 percent now.

The advantage among men for Moore took a big hit. It dropped from 12 points in November to 3 points now.

Not helping his situation is that only 41 percent of Republican men are “extremely interested” in this election, as opposed to Republican women, at 50 percent, and Democrat men at 53 percent.

“Moore might prevail if only the people who typically vote in Alabama elections turn out Tuesday, which is often what happens in special elections,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw.

“But this appears to be a special, special election with blacks and young voters animated by a caustic Republican candidate and the chance of winning a statewide election with national implications, and at the same time some Republicans and many moderates are turned off by Moore, too.”

The poll was conducted from December 7 to December 10. There were 1,127 “likely voter” respondents, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

President Trump has made robocalls and even held a Florida rally to boost Moore in the past week. It remains to be seen if he has that kind of pull with Alabama voters.

For the full sample of registered Alabama voters taken, 1,408, the margin of error goes down to 2.5 percentage points.