Nolan Is Not A Fan

Now it is going to get interesting.

With the 2018 midterm elections almost two weeks behind us and the data from it starting to give us a picture of what happened now is the time for a sober analysis.

Not really, now is the time to be first in stating all things to push the envelope.

The Detroit News editorial page director is a gentleman by the name of Nolan Finley and he has been a staple of that page for close to two decades. Mr. Finley writes his opinions for a living and he came out with an interesting “take” on what the GOP should do after the midterms going into 2020.

Dump Trump.

Now to be fair, the Detroit News editorial page led by Nolan has not been a fan of Trump since Trump became a thing in politics. Case in point, the News endorsed Gary Johnson in the 2016 Presidential election ( I also voted for Johnson) so this is not a total surprise.

What did stump me was the way my hometown newspaper editorial board director just threw some verbal boogers at the page to see what would stick. If you are going to throw down a gauntlet like that this early, give us something to talk about during the Thanksgiving holiday to argue with the family about.

Changing horses midstream we need some good reasons why and a clear choice of who. According to Finley’s piece from Sunday, the midterms spell disaster for a Trump re-election in 2020.

The thumping the GOP took in the midterm election was not thorough enough to embolden them to turn their back on a president who still thrills his rabid base.

The gain of a few Senate seats doesn’t mitigate the loss of the House, or of seven Republican governors. Nor does it change an electoral college map that shifted decisively in Democratic favor this past Election Day.

While those Trumpites are intensely loyal to the president, there aren’t enough to re-elect him. And the midterm demonstrated that the independents who gave him a shot two years ago are now heavily against Trump.

While the midterms do give some clear danger signs for the Trump led GOP, some of which I talk about here RACISM: “He’s Barack Obama, But White.” Dems Eye Whitebama In 2020 it is not all doom and gloom.

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Musa al-Gharbi over at The Washington Post had an interesting breakdown of the historical trends.

Historically speaking, Democrats delivered a thoroughly average result in their first round as Trump’s opposition. Going all the way back to the Civil War, there were only two instances when a new party seized the presidency but didn’t lose seats in the House during their first midterm elections: Under President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 (during the Great Depression), and President George W. Bush in 2002 (in the shadow of the 9/11 terrorist attacks). Even including these outliers, the average attrition during a party’s inaugural midterms is 35 House seats; excluding these two exceptions, the average loss is 41. Regardless of which number we run with, Trump could end up performing better than average in preserving his party’s influence in the House. He performed much better than his last two Democratic predecessors: Bill Clinton lost control of both chambers in the 1994 midterm elections. Barack Obama saw historic losses in the House in 2010, and lost seats in the Senate as well — the most sweeping congressional reversal in 62 years.

So while I also see potential problems down the road, this 2018 election was not as bad as Finley makes it out to be.

Also, who would the GOP choose?

This is the part where I just don’t understand the thinking of Nolan. I’m sure he recalls the two modern-day challenges to Presidents from within their parties. Reagan vs Ford in 1976 and Kennedy vs Carter in 1980. Both challengers failed and damaged the candidate going into the general with both incumbents losing.

The one thing both Reagan and Kennedy shared were bigger than life personas who had a record as elected officials.  In light of that, here are the suggestions that Nolan made and my stellar thoughts on them.

Some names are floating. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, for one. He was Trump’s most persistent rival in 2016. But he feels a bit like warmed-overs.

Gov. John Kasich is not just leftover appetizers from a party he should have never thrown or been at, he is the guy who annoys you with his know it all, not knowing anything persona. Plus if we have to hear one more time his Dad was a postal carrier, someone is tossing him into Lake Erie.

Mitt Romney just got elected to the Senate from Utah, and it would be unseemly for him to immediately launch a third presidential bid.

Mitt just was elected to the Senate and he already stated he would not run after earning the trust of the people of Utah. Not even an option.

Jeff Flake, the retiring Arizona senator, says he may run, but his wobbling on the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hurts him

Sen. Jeff Flake is leaving the Senate because of Donald Trump. He made that decision long before the Kavanaugh debacle and I would be lying if I said I wouldn’t love him running in the GOP primary against Trump. The minute some female Trump supporters corner him in an elevator he would turn to a puddle quicker than Frosty the Snowman in a florist shop.

Sen. Ben Sasse from Nebraska. He’s young and hasn’t been afraid to criticize Trump. Sasse is dynamic and excites young voters — a big plus if Democrats dip into their septuagenarian corps for a candidate.

Sen. Sasse is an interesting political figure and has a bright future if he chooses to stick with the Washington D.C. grind. However, as I mentioned above if you are going to challenge a sitting President of your own party you might need some gravitas. Sen. Sasse just does not have that seasoning and experience yet.

The GOP and President Donald Trump have a lot of work to do between now and 2020 to convince voters they should be chosen again for another four years. Trump and his team will not be sneaking up on anyone in Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania this time.

Yet if you are going try to take down a sitting POTUS within your party you better have a plan and just wishing will not get the job done.

Check out my other post on Porn Princess, Stormy Daniels Says Donald Trump Has ‘COMPLETELY DESTROYED’ Her Career and check out my podcast Bourbon On The Rocks plus like Bourbon On The Rocks on Facebook and follow me on the twitters at IRISHDUKE2

 

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