It’s The Economy Stupid

James Carville would be rolling over in his grave if he were in one now, being Trump could use his famous line from the 1992 election. The way Carville looks though, he might be sleeping in one actually.

According to a story over at Moody’s   the 45th President will keep his place at 1600 Pennsylvania for another 4 years if the economy holds up.

President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.

Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.

That one time that their model was wrong? Of course, it was the 2016 election where Donald Trump beat the wife of Bill Clinton.

The lowest electoral number Trump gets in these models is 289 which is above the 270 votes needed to win. The highest he gets is 352 which looks like a pipe dream to me.

This is all factored in on the economy doing well which under ANY OTHER President would be a safe, reliable gauge. However in the “Age of Trump” nothing is the same as it was prior to his election in Nov. of 2016 and you pretty much have to throw the rule book out and start rewriting it.

I live in the State of Michigan which Trump flipped to Republican for the first time since 1988. Team Bill’s wife did not take the threat serious that Michigan was up for grabs until the last 10 days of the election and they lost the state by 11.000 votes.

That is not going to happen again where the Democrats are asleep at the wheel.

So just based on the economy this should be a slam dunk for President Trump and he should win by a country mile.

We will see in less than 13 months if these predictions come true.

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Tags: Moody's