Extensive Crime Study Reveals FBI's Massive Under-Reporting of Defensive Gun Use by Legal Gun Owners

The Crime Prevention Resource Center (CPRC) has released the results of an extensive study of the FBI's statistics on how often crimes are prevented by legally armed citizens. In a finding that should come as a surprise to no one, the CPRC has determined that the FBI has massively under-reported instances of defensive gun use by legal gun owners. My colleague Jeff Charles wrote about this a few weeks back, but let's take a little deeper dive into the numbers.

You can find the CPRC's raw numbers here.

The FBI's numbers are available as well, for 2000-2013, 2014-2015, 2016-2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. So, feel free to do your own checking; that's how science works.

In summary, here's what the CPRC found as far as the FBI's under-reporting:

2014 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 20, CPRC determined 23, under-reported by 17.4%.
2015 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 20, CPRC determined 25, under-reported by 24.0%.
2016 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 20, CPRC determined 25, under-reported by 24.0%.
2017 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 31, CPRC determined 36, under-reported by 25.0%.
2018 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 30, CPRC determined 37, under-reported by 24.3%.
2019 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 30, CPRC determined 41, under-reported by 29.3%.
2020 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 40, CPRC determined 61, under-reported by 37.7%.
2021 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 61, CPRC determined 112, under-reported by 49.1%.
2022 - active shooter incidents stopped by an armed citizen, FBI reported 50, CPRC determined 80, under-reported by 41.3%.

There's a great deal more where that came from.

Look also at the broad trendline; the FBI's under-reporting increases, almost yearly, the year 2022 being the only case in which the percentage of cases not correctly classified. While still the second-highest number in the study, it actually showed a significant decline from the year before.

The real concern raised by CPRC's work, however, lies in the refusal of the FBI, when presented with the corrected estimates, to even review their own reporting practices:

Although collecting such data is fraught with challenges, some see a pattern of distortion in the FBI numbers because the errors almost exclusively go one way, minimizing the life-saving actions of armed citizens. “Whether deliberately through bias or just incompetence, the FBI database of active shooters cannot be trusted,” said Gary Mauser, an emeritus professor at Simon Fraser University in Canada who has extensively studied gun control and defensive gun uses. Mauser’s concern dovetails with those voiced by Rep. Jim Jordan in a July 27 letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray. Jordan alleged that whistleblowers have come forward claiming political biases in the FBI’s domestic terrorism data.
What is particularly troubling is the unwillingness of the FBI and the media to correct these omissions when informed about them. When Dr. John Lott worked at the US Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Policy and the Office of Justice Programs in 2020, the FBI was notified of their omissions involving potential mass public shootings, but they refused to correct those errors. Lott had previously alerted the FBI to similar problems back in 2015 and he published the list in the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences Today in March 2015, but corrections were never made even after the FBI admitted they were missing cases.

Dr. John Lott Jr., the CPRC's founder and current president, has done a great deal of work in examining the statistics behind legal and illegal gun ownership, and while his and the CPRC's work is numbers-driven, not ideology-driven, the data he has gathered and the conclusions that that data supports makes a great case for the Second Amendment and for the value an armed citizenry brings in keeping the populace safe from armed criminals.

Jeff Charles, again, has brought many examples to our attention:

Also in 2023, the CPRC conducted a study on polling, specifically, how the question asked can be manipulated to solicit specific answers. This year's work has also included a study on how concealed-carry laws affect murder rates, cases where legal gun owners have prevented mass shootings, and even an analysis of the disputed 2022 Arizona elections.

The various gun-control groups cannot even define what an "assault weapon" is while calling for them to be banned. But the CPRC works from a base of knowledge, about statistics, crime, guns, and about the law. They are an invaluable resource for the Second Amendment movement.