Not One Primary Vote Cast: Trump Is Not Inevitable.

AP Photo/Michael Wyke

It's a year away from the 2024 Presidential election, and it sure looks like the silly season is underway. The latest? In "Newsweek," former Trump administration functionary and former Fox News host Monica Crowley announces that the GOP primary is a done deal, even though not one primary vote has been cast or counted.

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Trump has enjoyed a commanding lead over all GOP presidential aspirants since early spring. He's currently ahead by a whopping 60 percent nationally. The last time a candidate had a lead this big was George W. Bush in 2000, who won all but seven states during the primary that year.

Trump is also way ahead in the key early states. Recent polling has Trump leading his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, by over 30 percent in Iowa and ahead by 30 points in New Hampshire. Polling in other states, including DeSantis's home state, show similar Trump dominance. Meanwhile, the betting odds put Trump at a 71.2 percent chance to win while DeSantis trails with an 8.4 percent chance.

Most significantly, Trump is the only Republican candidate who is consistently tied with or beating President Biden nationally and in most of the key swing states. GOP voters now realize that in order to win back the White House, Trump's the one.

That's as may be. I'm not saying it is, but it may be. Polls are notoriously behind the curve these days. Does everyone remember the 2016 election? When we all went to sleep depressed at the idea of a Hillary Clinton Presidency? Remember what those polls said?

Monica may be right or wrong on the numbers. The polling firms may be right or wrong on the numbers. But for crying out loud, to dismiss the other candidates as also-rans before even one GOP primary vote is cast? That's not just putting the cart before the horse; that's putting 50 carts before the horse.

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Let the primary voters vote!

So if they really care about the Republican Party and the country, as they all say they do, then they should end their campaigns and rally behind Trump, as Larry Elder just did. The GOP needs to be unified to win in 2024 and deal with America's grave challenges.

The longer the also-rans hang on, the worse it's going to be for them, the Republican Party, and the country. Many of them can still salvage their political futures and win back the support of America First voters by endorsing Trump now. It's time to close ranks behind Trump and make America great again, together.

Completely wrong. A vigorous, competitive primary is precisely what the GOP needs. A well-fought campaign sharpens all parties who take part in it. The primary debates (which President Trump has declined to take part in) are the best preparation for whoever will end up facing the Democrat candidate. The process, by design or by accident, tends to weed out the weaker candidates and leaves the best one well-honed to take on his general election opponent, who almost certainly won't be Joe Biden.

Sure, Donald Trump has done all this before. He played the game in 2016 like no one has ever played it before and ended up winning when all the "smart people" (including me, frankly) thought he was sure to lose. But he won in part because of a contentious GOP primary with a huge field that forced him to engage, gave him a (very small) dose of self-discipline, and taught him when to indulge in his trademark punching back and when to deal calmly with opponents and the media. There are problems, though, that President Trump did not face in 2016, including his ongoing legal troubles; unfounded they may be, but they are still taking time, money, and effort away from campaigning.

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We're a year away from the general election. Not one primary vote has yet been cast. The first state to complete their process is my old stomping grounds of Iowa, and their popular Governor just endorsed Ron DeSantis.

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The primary season is just getting started. Polls in the last few cycles have been notoriously unreliable.

Let the primary voters vote!

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