This is it. It’s the last Sunday before the election, and we have the final week’s poll results to over. Who do people love? (Spoiler: nobody.) Who do people hate? (Spoiler: everbody.) Who will win? (Spoiler: Trump or Clinton.) Who will lose? (Spoiler: YOU.)
These are the latest and worstest. So without further despair (spoiler, there will be more despair), the results:
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
Over the course of the week, Hillary Clinton climbed by two points overall, while Trump ended about even. Not shown: Jill Stein, came in below “Don’t Know”, “Wouldn’t Vote”, and “Other”.
Other shifts, all slight, are in sync. With the controversial FBI email announcement fading back a bit, Clinton has regrouped on strong enthusiasm — up 6 points in just two days, and now essentially even with Trump for the first time since before the Comey letter.
Moreover, Clinton’s deficit on who’s more honest and trustworthy has eased in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. It was Trump +8 points immediately post-Comey, Trump’s first significant lead on this attribute, but has narrowed to a non-significant Trump +4 now.
In keeping with other polls and nature of reality, the poll shows that both candidates remain highly disliked.
This poll has had Trump over Hillary for most of the time that it has been tracking results this year. Although it is the only poll showing Trump with a lead, it is not as huge a swing away from the others as you might think, as the rest generally show a very close race.
In the head-to-head, it’s a one point margin for Hillary. Hillary does better in her own party than Trump in “his”. She polls at 90% from Democrats, with Trump at 8%% among Republicans.
Here’s more from Fox:
Trump is favored by men (+11 points), whites (+19), and whites without a college degree (+33).
Clinton leads among women (+13 points), blacks (+74), and voters under age 30 (+17). She’s also ahead by 11 points among the one-in-five who have already voted (50-39 percent).
They split the support of whites with a college degree: Trump gets 45 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney won this group by 14 points (56-42 percent).
Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote, and among these voters, Trump – for the second day in a row – leads 53% to 43%, with Johnson at three percent (2%) and Stein with two percent (2%). Among voters who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 41%, Trump 30%, Johnson 25% and Stein four percent (4%).
That’s ahead of last week’s margin for Clinton in the same poll which was just one point. Both results are within the margin of error.
Like many of the others, this too is within the margin of error of +/- 3.3%. But you can bet you’ll hear more about it today.
AND … in the average that reflects the full race, the four way match-up, RCP has Clinton ahead by 2.1, with Clinton at 45, Trump at 42.9, Johnson at 4.7, and Stein at 2.0. McMullin, per normal, is not polled nationally (though he is still creating a whole new kind of chaos in Utah.) This week is an improvement for Hillary over last week’s 4-way race average, which had a margin of less than half a point.
Per historic trends, the national polls show a narrowing over previous margins as we come into the final few days. As she has most of the year, Hillary leads Trump, but it is a thin margin. It appears Hillary has recovered slightly from the Comey letter, and Trump has managed not to say anything too insane. And of course, people continue to tell third-party voters that they are wasting their vote, which is a ridiculous thing to say.
Tuesday is the big day. RedState will be the place to watch. We’ll have live tracking, live broadcasts, and maybe even play the song Stayin’ Alive. You never know.
Tomorrow morning, stay tuned for our final electoral college update, from Neil Stevens.
Good luck, America. You so freaking need it.