This is it. It’s the last Sunday before the election, and we have the final week’s poll results to over. Who do people love? (Spoiler: nobody.) Who do people hate? (Spoiler: everbody.) Who will win? (Spoiler: Trump or Clinton.) Who will lose? (Spoiler: YOU.)
These are the latest and worstest. So without further despair (spoiler, there will be more despair), the results:
Reuters/Ipsos Daily Poll
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
Over the course of the week, Hillary Clinton climbed by two points overall, while Trump ended about even. Not shown: Jill Stein, came in below “Don’t Know”, “Wouldn’t Vote”, and “Other”.
ABC News/Washington Post:
The ABC/WaPo Tracker has Hillary up by four over Trump today, with her regaining some on the enthusiasm gap as compared to earlier in the week.
Other shifts, all slight, are in sync. With the controversial FBI email announcement fading back a bit, Clinton has regrouped on strong enthusiasm — up 6 points in just two days, and now essentially even with Trump for the first time since before the Comey letter.
Moreover, Clinton’s deficit on who’s more honest and trustworthy has eased in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. It was Trump +8 points immediately post-Comey, Trump’s first significant lead on this attribute, but has narrowed to a non-significant Trump +4 now.
The McClatchy-Marist poll has Hillary Clinton leading Trump by two, at 46% to 44%. This is a big improvement for Trump in this poll, which also finds a majority of Americans believe Hillary acted illegally in the email scandal.
In keeping with other polls and nature of reality, the poll shows that both candidates remain highly disliked.
LA Times/USC Tracking Poll
This daily tracker’s latest has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by five, the biggest spread in this week’s results.
This poll has had Trump over Hillary for most of the time that it has been tracking results this year. Although it is the only poll showing Trump with a lead, it is not as huge a swing away from the others as you might think, as the rest generally show a very close race.
The latest from Fox News has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by two points, at 45 to 43 percent in the four way matchup.
In the head-to-head, it’s a one point margin for Hillary. Hillary does better in her own party than Trump in “his”. She polls at 90% from Democrats, with Trump at 8%% among Republicans.
Here’s more from Fox:
Trump is favored by men (+11 points), whites (+19), and whites without a college degree (+33).
Clinton leads among women (+13 points), blacks (+74), and voters under age 30 (+17). She’s also ahead by 11 points among the one-in-five who have already voted (50-39 percent).
They split the support of whites with a college degree: Trump gets 45 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney won this group by 14 points (56-42 percent).
The latest (Friday’s) has Trump and Clinton in a tie, both at 44% in the four way race. That’s down from a three point lead for Trump on Thursday. However, Rasmussen adds this about ‘Decided’ voters.
Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote, and among these voters, Trump – for the second day in a row – leads 53% to 43%, with Johnson at three percent (2%) and Stein with two percent (2%). Among voters who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 41%, Trump 30%, Johnson 25% and Stein four percent (4%).
This one has Clinton over Trump by 2%, at 47 to 45 in a four way race.
That’s ahead of last week’s margin for Clinton in the same poll which was just one point. Both results are within the margin of error.
This is the poll that Donald Trump and his many surrogates and supporters have touted as being the “most accurate” poll in history. Today, November 6, the latest result for this daily tracker shows a one point lead for (DUH DUH DAHHHHH) Donald Trump.
Like many of the others, this too is within the margin of error of +/- 3.3%. But you can bet you’ll hear more about it today.
This week the RCP Average for the head-to-head shows Hillary Clinton up 1.7 over Donald Trump, at 46.6 to 44.9. Like last week, it is a drop for Clinton, and a gain for Trump that has evened things out.
AND … in the average that reflects the full race, the four way match-up, RCP has Clinton ahead by 2.1, with Clinton at 45, Trump at 42.9, Johnson at 4.7, and Stein at 2.0. McMullin, per normal, is not polled nationally (though he is still creating a whole new kind of chaos in Utah.) This week is an improvement for Hillary over last week’s 4-way race average, which had a margin of less than half a point.
Per historic trends, the national polls show a narrowing over previous margins as we come into the final few days. As she has most of the year, Hillary leads Trump, but it is a thin margin. It appears Hillary has recovered slightly from the Comey letter, and Trump has managed not to say anything too insane. And of course, people continue to tell third-party voters that they are wasting their vote, which is a ridiculous thing to say.
Tuesday is the big day. RedState will be the place to watch. We’ll have live tracking, live broadcasts, and maybe even play the song Stayin’ Alive. You never know.
Tomorrow morning, stay tuned for our final electoral college update, from Neil Stevens.
Good luck, America. You so freaking need it.